Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder: Preview and Prediction

The Mexican king will fight in his native land for the first time in over ten years

May 06, 2023

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Tonight the king is coming home as Canelo Alvarez prepares to defend the Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship against John Ryder at the Estadio Akron in Mexico.

The last time Canelo fought in Mexico was against Kermit Cintron back in 2011 when he was just 19 years old, winning via 5th-round stoppage.

Canelo has gone on to prove all those who believed in him by becoming a multi-four-weight division world champion and defeating several world-class boxers such as Gennadiy Golovkin, Miguel Cotto, Sergey Kovalev, and more.

And the Mexican superstar will be looking to produce a spectacular performance in front of his loyal fans.

However, now 32 years old, Canelo has not been at his best in his last two bouts and some believe the former pound-for-pound king could be on the decline.

Canelo famously suffered the second loss of his professional career against Dmitry Bivol last year and then labored to a 12-round points win over an aging Golovkin in their trilogy fight.

Therefore, despite the numerous accolades of Canelo Alvarez and widely being regarded as one of the best Mexican boxers of all time, this could be the perfect opportunity for Ryder to face the toughest test of his career.

Nicknamed ‘The Gorilla’, Ryder’s professional record doesn’t paint an impressive picture. The Brit has lost to three of Canelo’s defeated opponents in Callum Smith, Rocky Fielding, and Billy Joe Saunders.

Furthermore, the best win of Ryder’s resume came in the form of a split-decision victory against Danny Jacobs - another boxer that Canelo beat with ease.

Nevertheless, Ryder is on a four-fight winning streak and looks to be in peak physical condition. Few expected him to overcome the formerly unbeaten Zach Parker, irrespective of the injury suffered by his fellow Briton.

Hence, Ryder is in the form of his life and if there is any tiny chance of beating Canelo Alvarez, it would be tonight.

Prediction

Sky Sports betting odds has Canelo Alvarez as an extremely strong favorite and this is justifiable.

Canelo is highly likely to knock John Ryder out in the mid to late rounds.

Ryder has shown throughout his career that he is a very tough man and there is no doubt in the biggest fight of his life that he won’t be looking for a comfy spot on the canvas.

Out of five losses, ‘The Gorilla’ has only been stopped once, which was against Nick Blackwell in 2015. Plus, Ryder has fought big punchers in Smith, Fielding, and Jacobs and has not gone down.

Unfortunately for the Islington native, he has never battled anyone on the same level as Canelo Alvarez and this will show in the contest.

You can expect Ryder to come forward in the early stages of the fight and be aggressive. Canelo may want to give his supporters a thrilling spectacle and could decide to box on the back foot and counterpunch.

Don’t be surprised if Ryder lands some power punches and is even able to take some of Canelo’s shots on the chin.

Yet, as the fight progresses, the boxing IQ, speed, and power of Canelo will be too much for Ryder and the Mexican will end up catching his challenger with a tremendous punch that leads to a stoppage or a knockout.

Not to mention, after two lackluster performances in a row, Canelo is likely to have a chip on his shoulder and actively go looking for a knockout, to prove he is still the rightful heir to the pound-for-pound throne.

The only aspect Ryder has in his favor is being a southpaw.

Canelo Alvarez did not face any southpaws last year and the boxing world remembers when he seriously struggled against Erislandy Lara in 2014 and was awarded a controversial split decision.

Saying that, Canelo brutally stopped Billy Joe Saunders in 2021 to add the WBO Super Middleweight Championship to his collection.

Besides, Canelo is literally fighting in his hometown with family members, friends, and Mexican officials in attendance. So the chances of Ryder coming away with a points win is little to none.

Thus, Ryder needs to go for the knockout to have any chance of victory and opt to become the first boxer to stop Canelo in over sixty professional fights.

And after seeing Canelo take flush punches from Golovkin and Kovalev and stay on his feet, this is extremely unlikely too.

In a nutshell, anything can happen in boxing but a Canelo victory is almost guaranteed. The questions are, how will Canelo get the job done and will he look impressive?

Canelo to Win - 1/20

Canelo via KO - ¼

Canelo via Decision - 7/2

Ryder to Win - 8/1

Ryder via KO - 12/1

Ryder via Decision - 16/1

Draw - 25/1

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